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China Natural Gas Industry Development Trend and Investment Decision Analysis Report, 2013-2020

Last Update:2014-05-03

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Preface

Table of Content

Key for management is decision making while key for decision making is forecast. The outstanding corporations would prefer to spend great efforts in seeking the current demand, potential need and new requirement of the industry.

As a clean, low-carbon and environmental energy, natural gas has become popular for investment market. However, many problems still needed to be settled urgently, such as “how is the development trend of the industry”, “how is the market capacity”, “what kind of field does the potential segment market mainly concentrated in”, “what are the development dilemmas and how to settle down”, “what are the investment hotspots” and “how is the investment trend of the leading corporations”. Therefore, the outstanding natural gas corporations pay more and more attention to the research of industrial development trend, especially the in-depth research of development dilemma and investment opportunities.

The most significant features of this report are perceptiveness and timeliness. It is with a Qianzhan-looking analysis of massive first-hand research data; it conducts an in-depth and objective analysis about the overall market capability, market size, competition structure and market demand characteristics; it gives a prudent analysis and forecast of natural gas industry according to the industry development track and Qianzhan’s years of practical experience. In conclusion, it is a significant report to learn about the latest development trend, grab market opportunities, and make correct marketing decision and explicit corporations’ development trend for all natural gas management corporations, Natural Gas exploration and manufacturing corporations, R&D institutes, transformation and distribution corporations and Investment corporations. Besides, it is the first heavyweight report to give a comprehensive and systematic analysis about the upstream and downstream industrial chain, as well as key corporations in natural gas industry.

This report is useful for natural gas management corporations, natural gas exploration and manufacturing corporations, R&D institutes, transformation and distribution corporations and Investment corporations for the following reasons: it will help them to accurately know the latest development trend and timely discover the market gaps, opportunities, growth points and profit points of industrial textile industry; it will assist them to grasp the unmet market demand and development trend prospectively, form the sustainable advantages, avoid the investment risks effectively, consolidate or expand relevant strategic target markets more efficiently, and firmly grasp the competition initiative.

Here, we would like to express our sincere gratitude to China Gas Website, Natural Gas Association in different provinces and cities, State Information Center, Bureau of Statistics of China, General Administration of Customs, International Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Tsinghua University Library and Development Research Center of the State Council, for their great support when we conduct this report!

Special Notes: Neglecting the subtle signals of dramatically changing external environment, and untimely update strategies along with the changing environment will lead to the loss of competition advantages. The successful corporations will keep a scientific analysis upon the external environment before making their significant operational strategies!

Qianzhan Business Intelligence sincerely wishes every ambitious corporation can make a significant operational strategy, effectively avoid the industry risks and gain the continuous success!

Qianzhan Business Information Co., Ltd. Industry Research Center

Research Team of Natural Gas Industry

Chapter 1: Life Cycle and Development Trend of Natural Gas Industry

1.1 Definition of the Industry

1.1.1 Definition

1.1.2 Classification

1.1.3 Analysis of the Industry Chain

1.2 Life Cycle of the Industry

1.2.1 Life Cycle Theory

1.2.2 Life Cycle of Natural Gas Industry

(1) Growth Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

(2) Competition Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

(3) Profit Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

1.2.3 Admeasurement of the Life Cycle Phrase of China Natural Gas Industry

1.3 Overall Development Trend of China Natural Gas in next 8 Years

1.3.1 The Natural Gas Gap May Enlarged in next 8 Years

1.3.2 The Unconventional Gas will Develop in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1.3.3 China Natural Gas Industry will be Faced with Price System Problem in next 8 Years

1.3.4 The Shale-Gas Resource May be Developed in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1.3.5 China Natural Gas Distributed-energy-resource is Hopefully to Develop in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1.3.6 The Investment Focuses of Natural Gas will lay in Downstream Chain in next 8 Years

Chapter 2: Supply Market Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

2.1 Supply Scale Forecast of China Natural Gas Market during 2013-2020

2.1.1 Influencing Factors to the Natural Gas Supply Scale in the Future

(1) Reserve and Production Ratio of Natural Gas in the Future

(2) Influence of the Policy Trend to Natural Gas in the Future

1) As the Clean Energy, Natural Gas Will Be the Emphasized Energy to Develop in the Future

2) Develop Natural Gas Will Be the Inevitable Choice to Adjust National Energy Structure and Energy Security

(3) Influence of the Technology to Natural Gas in the Future

(4) Price Trend Forecast of Natural Gas during 2013-2020

1) Price Trend of Natural Gas in Foreign Countries

2) Price Trend Forecast of Natural Gas during 2013-2020 in China

2.1.2 Supply Scale Forecast of China Natural Gas Market during 2013-2020

2.2 Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.1 Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas in the Future

(1) Hierarchical Prediction Method

(2) Data Reasoning of China Natural Gas Supply Source in the Future

(3) Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.2 Forecast of the Largest Supply Market in the Future-Conventional Gas

(1) Influencing Factors

1) Production Trend of China Conventional Gas

2) Planning on Major China Conventional Gas in the Future

(2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Conventional Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.3 Forecast of the Most Potential Supply Market in the Future-Unconventional Gas

(1) Tight Gas Will Develop in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1) Distribution of China Tight Gas Resources

2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Tight Gas during 2013-2020

(2) Shale Gas May Become the New Power of Unconventional Gas in next 8 Years

1) Distribution of China Shale Gas Resources

2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Shale Gas during 2013-2020

(3) Coal-bed Gas Will Be Marketization in next 8 Years

1) Distribution of China Coal-bed Gas Resources

2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Coal-bed Gas during 2013-2020

(4) Coal Gas Will Become the Significant Supplement in next 8 Years

1) Distribution of China Coal Gas Resources

2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Coal Gas during 2013-2020

(5) Import Gas Will Steadily Increase in next 8 Years

1) Imports of Pipeline Gas Will Increase Fast in next 8 Years

2) Imports of LNG Will Grow Steadily in next 8 Years

Chapter 3: Market Demand Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.1 Market Capacity Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.1.1 Econometric Model Construction of the Market Capacity of China Natural Gas Industry

(1) Model Setting

(2) Data Collection and Parameter Evaluation

(3) Model Test

1) Goodness-of-fit Evaluation and Durbin-Watson Test

2) Significance Testing of Regression Coefficient

3) Overall Significance Testing of Regression Equation

4) Normality Test

5) Economic Significance Test

3.1.2 Market Capacity Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.2 Forecast of Major Segment Markets of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.2.1 Prediction Method and Idea of Segment Markets of China Natural Gas Industry

(1) Hierarchical Prediction Method

(2) Data Reasoning of China Natural Gas Segment Market in the Future

(3) Forecast of China Natural Gas Consumption during 2013-2020

3.2.2 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Residents' Fuel Gas during 2013-2020

(1) Natural Gas Market Demand to China Residents' Fuel Gas in next Decade

1) Natural Gas Will Become the Alternative Energy with the Fast Growth in next Decade

2) The Popularity Rate of Natural Gas Will Greatly Increase in next Decade

(2) Factors to Promote the Natural Gas Demand in Urban Areas

1) Advantages of Natural Gas

2) Strongly Policy Supports

3) Construction of Natural Gas Pipeline Network

4) Penetration Rate of User Amount Will Increase

5) New Urbanization Promotes the Growth of User Amount

(3) Forecast of China Town Gas Market Capacity during 2013-2020

3.2.3 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

(1) Major Application of Natural Gas in Power Generation

1) Peaking Power Plant

2) Distributed Energy Sources

(2) Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

1) Planning on Natural Gas Power Generation Scale during 2013-2020

2) Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

3.2.4 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Transportation during 2013-2020

(1) Market Size Forecast of LNG Vehicle during 2013-2020

(2) Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Transportation during 2013-2020

Chapter 4: Development Dilemma and Solutions of China Natural Gas Industry in next 8 Years

4.1 Enlarging Gap of Natural Gas Supply and Demand and the Solution in next 8 Years

4.1.1 China Natural Gas Supply and Demand during 2013-2020

(1) China Natural Gas Supply-Demand Gap Will Enlarge

(2) Foreign-trade Dependence of China Natural Gas Will Increase

(3) Early Warming Status of China Natural Gas

1) Supply and Demand Ratio of Natural Gas

2) Early Warming Evaluation of Natural Gas

3) Early Warming Status of Natural Gas

4.1.2 Solutions to China Natural Gas Supply-Demand Gap in next 8 Years

(1) Increase the Development of Unconventional Gas

(2) Enlarge the Import Scale of Natural Gas

4.2 Improve the Reforming Way of Natural Gas Price Mechanism in next 8 Years

4.2.1 Overview of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

(1) Theory of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

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