China Banking Credit Risk Management and Credit Strategy Report, 2013-2017
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Table of Content
In 2010, commercial banks show an actively supporting attitude towards macro control and state strategy, and make efforts to grasp opportunities as well as enhance credit investment. The international and comprehensive standard is further improving along with the fast expanding asset size and stable profit. The market structure of banking is changing that the market share of state-controlled banks is increasing while that of foreign banks is decreasing. Actively conforming to the supervision requirement, the commercial banks reasonably control the credit investment speed and strengthen risk control. By the end of 2010, the non-performing loan rate to commercial banks is 1.14% and the non-performing loan balance is 429.3 billion Yuan which keep a “double decline”. And the provision coverage rate to commercial banks will be further improved.
Since 2011 PBC emphasizes the macro control of maintaining stable general level of market prices and proposes the following targets: to implement a prudent monetary policy; to alternate the use of monetary policy instruments of quantitative and price-based; to strengthen the control of liquidity management and monetary and credit aggregates; to maintain a reasonable scale of social financing; to promote stable and healthy economic development. The Central Economic Work Conference proposes the following requirements: either the financial policies or credit policies should pay attention to strengthen the coordination with industrial policies to fully reflect classified guidance and supports together with control; continuously enhance the investment to “agriculture-countryside-farmer”, affordable housing and public services; continuously support the less developed regions, technological innovation, energy saving and environmental protection, strategic new industry, state’s major infrastructure projects which are under construction or continued construction, technical reform to corporations. It forms a direction for the credit loan as “supports together with controls” too.
According to the data revealed by Central Bank, from 2006 to 2010, despite the130% growth rate of new credit scale in 2009 which is caused by the 4 trillion Yuan investment, it maintains about 15% to 18% in other years; the new RMB loan in December, 2011 is 562.2 billion Yuan while it is 684 million Yuan in the first 11 months. Although there is room for the line of credit by the end of this year, the growth won’t spurt. The year-round scale of new loan is predicted to between 7.3 billion to 7.4 billion. A combination of factors leads to the conclusion, that the reasonable growth of loan investment is 13% to 14%. And it is predicted that scale of new loan in 2012 is about 8 trillion Yuan.
Moreover, the 2011 Central Economic Work Conference makes an overall requirement for the economic work in 2012 as “continuously implement the active financial policy and stable monetary policy, maintain the continuity and stability of macro-economic policy, and enhance the direction, flexibility and foresight of regulation and control”. The conference also points out the following issues: the monetary policy should timely adjust to the economic operational condition; to keep a reasonable growth of total currency loans and optimize the credit structure by integrated use of various monetary policy tools. According to analysis, the change of monetary policy from “to handle the flexibility” to “keep a reasonable growth of total currency loans” means the fundamental change of government’s attitude.
With Forward’s the long-term tracking and collecting market data of banking credit market, we roundly and accurately analyze the structure system for you from the view of mastering the whole industry. This report mainly analyzes the following aspects: market environment of credit business for China commercial banks; domestic credit demand status; attraction of the credit capital to different industries for domestic commercial banks; credit investment status in major regions; credit risk management and credit strategy for commercial banks. Meanwhile, together with the comprehensive and detailed market data which is accumulated for 5 years, Forward helps you to grasp the market and development trends of commercial banks credit investment, so as to win advantages from competition!
Major characteristics of this report are forward-looking and timeliness. Base on the forward-looking analysis of massive research data, we further analyze the development scale and competitive landscape of current China’s banking credit business. Along with the industry development route and our practical experience, we analyze and predict the future development prospect of banking credit business. This report is of a high value for commercial banks and relevant financial institutes to accurately know the latest industry development trend, and obtain market opportunities and determine an insightful operation strategy and development direction. In the meantime, it is the first heavy weight report to analyze the up/down-stream industry chain and industry leading corporations of banking credit business in an overall and systemic way.
Here, we’d like to express our sincere gratitude to China Banking Regulatory Commission, National Statistics Bureau of China, International Information Institute, National Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, National Tsing Hua University Library, Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, and Beijing Qinghua Forward Market Research Center, etc. Thank you so much!
Qianzhan Business Information Co., Ltd. Industry Research College
Research Team of Banking Credit Business
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